How Scary is the Future For Property Prices?

Nothing is scarier than the unknown. So, when you see a property expert is just as lost as you when it comes to predicting the future of property, it’s only natural that your heart starts racing.

If you’re looking to move home, you want as much clarity as possible. Therein lies the problem when trying to find a property expert. Some experts may be too vague, wary, and just won’t put their neck on the line with them saying “we just need to wait this out” which doesn’t help anyone thinking of buying or selling.

Thankfully, the property expert that can wake you from these nightmares is at hand!

At The Property Angel, we’re prepared to breakdown the market, analyse the data, and make sense of what’s going on. We take the time to research, listen and follow commentators from across the spectrum from economics, retail, health and property to come to conclusions now and we’re prepared to publish them to try and help others make sense of things, so they can make and take decisions rather than ‘wait and see’-Waiting and seeing can cause analysis paralysis and cost people £1000s.

There has been so much information released and commentary created over the last week or so about the state of the property market and where it may be heading, that I thought it was time to sift through it all again and give you this property expert’s take on it all.

So, here are my conclusions to help you make sense of where property prices are going. Please bear in mind these are on a macro level for the UK. If you find yourself needing to discuss matters in your area, then please book a free 30-minute zoom call with me here.

The media is full of economic woe and news of present and future job losses and how these things must affect property prices, which have been on an upward trend since Lockdown was eased back in May for England and Wales and mid/end of June for Northern Ireland and Scotland respectively.

There are at least three things which will help protect property prices:

1. The Government ‘s tier system and potentially a short sharp circuit breaker will actually help protect property prices- just look what happened the last time after Lockdown measures were eased, when pent up demand was unleashed and property prices climbed throughout the summer.

2. The Ministry of Housing (MHCLG) reported that New Build housing starts and completions fell 52% and 62% between April and June. The market is now playing catch up, supplies to the market will be low, and with demand not being met, prices will inevitably rise or at worst be protected.

3. The post Grenfell Tower cladding issue for flatted developments will also affect prices. The Times reports that more than 1.5 million flats in England are over 3 storeys tall and are affected. Until the owners of these flats have the issue sorted out, they’re unable to sell their properties, meaning a large swathe of first-time buyer properties are not able to return to the market.

There are signs of falling buyer and seller demand just now, but that’s to be expected as:

1.This time of year, is traditionally quieter; and

2.COVID-19 has taken its grip again, creating the uncertain conditions which ground the market to a halt earlier in the year.

A soon to be released report from Reallymoving.com will show house prices have climbed by 17.5% this year including a 4th quarter rise of 8.8%. However, this is the last of the summer wine based on the summer surge.-we will, most likely, return to a quieter period over Christmas and into 2021 and I expect to see a stagnant market in early 2021 unless the stamp duty holiday is extended beyond 31^st March 2021. Accepted offers are taking an average of 16 weeks in England and Wales. This means that there will be a rush to get offers agreed in late December to make it before the stamp duty holiday.

I also expect to see an agent call to action for buyers to buy ahead of Christmas in time for March, leaving what message for buyers at the start of 2021?

Personally, I think buyers will adopt a wait and see approach as will the Chancellor who has, so far, not been found wanting at any stage of the pandemic and is to be praised for his initiatives thus far.

Although It may take until past Valentine’s Day, I anticipate him giving a gift to the property industry by extending the stamp duty holiday until the end of 2021, and this  will coincide with a mass vaccine programme being in place in the UK after the Sunday Times quoted deputy chief medical officer, Professor Jonathan Van-Tam, who reportedly told MPs the vaccine could be rolled out just after Christmas.

House price indices in January and February will still show high house price growth. The RICS and sentiment trackers may tell another story of inactivity and properties not selling because of a lack of demand but I’m pretty sure Rishi will ride to the rescue.

Will it be enough to lure buyers back to the market though in the face of the ghoulish economic situation – well it did the last time and there will likely be further things in the market’s favour this time too, namely

1.The change from winter to spring

2. For those still working more savings for deposits

3. People’s need to move will not have changed

4. The good news around a vaccine which will unleash a feel-good factor with a spending boom the likes of which has never been seen before in hospitality, travel and in the property market.

I think the spring and summer of 2021 onwards has the potential to be record breaking until at least the end of 2022.

To see how our previous predictions have fared against other property experts check out our next blog.

If you're thinking of moving soon and want some free guidance and support then don't hesitate to book a zoom call here

I look forward to hearing from you

 

Kevin

Kevin Davidson

Founder & CEO

The Property Angel